contents

Psychology and Economics

Course Overview

This course focuses on the integration of psychological principles into economic models to understand better how individuals behave, especially in the context of poverty and decision making.

Understanding Behavioral Economics

Behavioral Economics studies the joint influence of psychological and economic factors on individual behaviors. The aim is to augment traditional economic models, which often rely on rigid assumptions about human behavior.

Core Principles of Standard Economics

Limitations of Standard Models

Standard models often fail to predict actual behavior. Behavioral Economics seeks to identify and understand deviations from these models.

Key Assumptions and Deviations

Assumption Violations

Behavioral Economics highlights real-world examples that contradict classical assumptions:

Examples of Deviations

  1. Limited Self-Control: Individuals may not follow through on intentions (e.g., exercise).

  2. Miscalibration of Information Processing: Many people fail to update their beliefs accurately based on new information.

  3. Peer Effects: Social norms and peer behavior influence individual choices (e.g., purchasing behaviors).

Practical Applications: Policies and Decisions

One prominent example discussed is the laptop policy in class:

Broad Topics to be Covered in the Course

  1. Introduction to Preferences: Examining how preferences change under different circumstances.

  2. Beliefs and Information Processing: Understanding how beliefs influence decision-making.

  3. Social Preferences and Behaviors: How individual preferences are shaped by social interactions and norms.

  4. Specifying Paternalistic Policies: Discussing when and how intervention in choices can be beneficial (nudges).

  5. Topics on Mental Health and Happiness: How mental health impacts economic decisions and behaviors.

  6. Poverty and Economic Behavior: Exploring the implications of poverty on decision-making processes.

Conclusion

Behavioral Economics enriches the study of economics by incorporating psychological insights and recognizes that human behavior often deviates from the assumptions of classical models. This course aims to explore those deviations and their implications in policy and individual decision-making.

Notes on Behavioral Economics

Introduction to Behavioral Economics

Behavioral economics integrates insights from psychology into economic theory, primarily focusing on the cognitive, emotional, and social factors that influence individuals’ decisions.

Survey Methodology

Surveys provide suggestive evidence about behavioral issues. Ethical considerations such as IRB approval depend on the anonymity and lack of personally identifiable information in surveys.

Components of Economic Decision-Making

Economists view human behavior through three main lenses:
1. Constrained Optimization Individuals aim to maximize their utility subject to constraints (e.g., budget).

2. Utility Function

The general form of the utility function U is:
U = U(x1, x2, …, xn)
where xi are quantities of different goods consumed.
3. Beliefs
Individuals form beliefs about the world based on prior experiences, leading to expectations about the future (posterior beliefs).

Types of Utility

1. Instantaneous Utility

2. Aggregation Over Time

Risk Preferences and Social Preferences

Risk Preferences

Social Preferences

Decision-Making Framework

Behavioral economics concerns itself with understanding why individuals may deviate from expected utility maximization. Influences on behavior include:

1. Framing Effects

2. Default Options and Nudges

3. Heuristics

Utility and Altruism

Utility Function Formulation

Utility functions can be expanded to include social actors:
U = U(self, others)
This reflects that individuals derive utility not only from personal consumption but also from the welfare of others.

Moral and Social Obligations

Altruistic behaviors may arise from motives such as:

Time Preferences and Commitment Devices

Present Bias

Present bias refers to the tendency to give stronger weight to immediate rewards compared to future benefits. The general representation can be shown as:
U = U0 + βU1
where β < 1 reflects present bias.

Commitment Devices

Individuals proactively engage in actions (like dieting bets) to enforce future good behaviors despite knowing their present biases.

Beliefs and Information Updating

Bayesian Updating

Individuals need to update their beliefs based on new information; e.g., if a person receives an HIV test result:
$$P(HIV | \text{Positive}) = \frac{P(\text{Positive|HIV}) \cdot P(HIV)}{P(\text{Positive})}$$
Understanding the base rate is crucial for making accurate assessments—neglecting it leads to base rate neglect phenomena.

Anchoring and Heuristics in Decision-Making

Individuals frequently rely on anchors (initial pieces of information) which can significantly affect subsequent judgments and decisions, as demonstrated by:

  1. Price Anchoring

  2. Social Influence factors

Impact of Environment on Behavior

The situation can alter behavior dramatically, as shown in studies like Darley & Batson’s on helping behavior in relation to time pressure and mindset. The results suggest that situational variables often overshadow stable personality traits.

Conclusions

Lecture Notes: Time Preferences and Theoretical Foundations

Introduction

In this lecture and the next, we will discuss time preferences and the underlying theoretical models, focusing on the following:

We will explore various real-world situations like procrastination, credit card debt, and more that highlight the importance of understanding time preferences in economic decision-making.

Key Concepts

Exponential Discounting

Exponential discounting is the standard model used by economists to explain how individuals value present versus future benefits. The utility maximization can be represented mathematically as follows:


$$U = \sum_{t=0}^{\infty} \delta^t u_t$$

Where:

This functional form implies constant discounting over time.

Problems with Exponential Discounting

While exponential discounting is tractable, it does not account for certain behaviors observed in individuals:

Quasi-Hyperbolic Discounting

To address the limitations of exponential discounting, the quasi-hyperbolic model introduces two parameters, β and δ:
$$U = u_0 + \sum_{t=1}^{\infty} \beta \delta^t u_t$$

Where:

This model allows for faster discounts of near-term utilities while treating future utilities under a longer-term perspective.

Applications and Examples

Procrastination and Education Choices

We can analyze decisions like whether to complete a problem set or pursue further education as follows:

Examples of Choices

  1. Exercise — Immediate costs (effort and discomfort) vs. future health benefits.

  2. Spending and Credit Cards — Immediate gratification of purchases vs. future debt incurred.

  3. Investment Decisions — Decisions on savings today versus anticipated returns in the future.

Behavioral Economics Insights

Dynamic Consistency vs. Time Inconsistency

Dynamic consistency refers to maintaining preference stability over time. The assumption in the exponential discounting model suggests that an individual’s preferences should remain unchanged:


If A ≻ B at time t ⇒ A ≻ B at time t + 1

However, evidence suggests people do not often choose the same when faced with the same option in the future, displaying:

Examples of Commitment Devices

There are several ways individuals employ commitment devices, such as:

Conclusions

This lecture established the foundation for understanding time preferences and their implications on decision-making. The transition from exponential to quasi-hyperbolic discounting presents a more realistic view of human patience and impulse control.

Notes on Quasi-Hyperbolic Discounting

Introduction

We started with a discussion of the workhorse model of classical economics, specifically the Exponential Discounted Utility Model, highlighting its utility and limitations. We explored the assumptions of the model and identified inconsistencies with observed behaviors.

Key Assumptions of Exponential Discounting

The key assumptions of the exponential discounting model include:

Evidence Against Exponential Discounting

We discussed various observations that contradict the exponential discounting model:

Quasi-Hyperbolic Discounting Model

To address the limitations of the exponential model, the quasi-hyperbolic discounting model introduces an additional parameter, β, to represent short-term bias:


$$U_t = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if } t = 0 \\ \beta \cdot \delta^t & \text{if } t > 0 \end{cases}$$

Parameters

Behavioral Implications

The quasi-hyperbolic model captures distinct behaviors in individuals:

  1. Impatience in Short-Term Rewards: Individuals may choose smaller immediate rewards over larger delayed rewards.

  2. Long-Term Patience: While short-term preference may lead to impulsive choices, individuals may consider future rewards when making long-term decisions.

Sophistication vs. Naivete

We examined the difference between sophisticated and naive individuals, focusing on how self-control affects decision-making:

Investment and Leisure Goods

We categorized different choices as investment goods (immediate costs, delayed benefits) or leisure goods (immediate rewards, delayed costs):

Conclusion

The introduction of quasi-hyperbolic discounting provides a more accurate representation of human behavior in terms of time preferences. Understanding the dynamics of sophistication and naivete is vital for creating models that can predict and improve decision-making, guiding individuals toward better long-term choices.

Further Reading

For more on these topics, refer to the paper by Ariely and Wertenbroch, which explores applications of these models in various real-world scenarios such as smoking cessation, drinking habits, and deadline effects.

Notes on Time Preferences and Commitment Devices

Overview of Time Preferences

Time preferences refer to the way individuals value rewards or consumption at different points in time. Key concepts discussed in the lecture include:

Sophistication vs. Naiveté

Individuals can be classified based on their ability to recognize their own present bias:

Commitment Devices

Commitment devices help individuals stick to their long-term goals by changing their future choices’ cost structure. They can include:

Definition

A commitment device is defined as an arrangement that restricts an agent’s future choice set.

Examples

Empirical Evidence

Several studies illustrate the demand for commitment devices:

Ariely and Wertenbroch (2002)

This study investigated deadlines set by MBA students at Sloan. Key findings include:

Kaur, Mullainathan, Kremer (2010)

This study with data entry workers in India provided insights into commitment devices:

Dellavigna and Malmendier (2004)

This study examined gym memberships:

Milkman et al. (2014)

This research emphasized the bundling of temptations, promoting healthier choices by linking them to enjoyable activities (e.g., audiobooks at the gym).

Conclusion

The exploration of time preferences, commitment devices, and their empirical applications reveals important implications for economic behavior. With insights from behavioral economics, firms and individuals can strategically design interventions to improve self-control and decision-making.

Learning Commitment Devices and Discounting: Detailed Summary

Commitment Devices

Definition

A commitment device is something chosen by an agent that helps them to commit to a future action they believe they would like to take.

Types of Agents

Three types of agents can be considered:

Decision-Making Process

To analyze the behavior of partially naive agents:

  1. Start with backwards induction: Begin solving from the future to the present.

  2. Use the agent’s beliefs (beta hat) to forecast future actions.

  3. As you move backwards, utilize the actual choices made based on actual beta in its corresponding periods.

Continuous vs Discrete Choices

In economics, choices can be continuous (e.g., how much to consume) or discrete (e.g., whether to do an assignment or not). Continuous choice models involve optimization with constraints, similar to those discussed in introductory microeconomics courses.

Quasi-Hyperbolic Discounting

This model describes how people evaluate present versus future rewards using the equation:
$$U = \sum_{t=0}^{\infty} \beta^t U(c_t)$$
where:

Empirical Applications of Commitment Devices

Credit Card Behavior

In a study on credit card offers, various deals were presented to potential customers to analyze how quasi-hyperbolic discounting could affect decision-making. Relevant rates were examined:

Findings suggest people often do not account for future borrowing costs when making present decisions.

Evaluation of Commitment Devices

Evidence indicates a strong correlation between the perceived future behaviors and the actual behavior based on initial choices:

Commitment Devices in Practice

Savings Accounts Study

In a study looking at a commitment savings account:

Alcohol Consumption in India

Research on alcohol consumption among low-income workers revealed:

Finding the Right Commitment Device

Commitment devices should ideally lead to:

Fertilizer Usage in Developing Countries

The work of Esther Duflo and Michael Kremer:

Conclusion

In summary, commitment devices have shown potential for improving outcomes related to self-control problems. However, their effectiveness varies significantly across contexts. Future work should continue to examine how commitment devices can be designed and marketed to maximize their impact while minimizing failure rates.

Notes on Risk Preferences

Overview of Risk Preferences

In this lecture, we will explore the notion of risk preferences from the perspective of expected utility, focusing on how economics interprets choices involving risk.

Key Topics

Risk Aversion

Risk Aversion: It refers to the tendency of individuals to prefer certainty over uncertain outcomes that could yield the same expected payoff. In other words, individuals are averse to taking risks.

Economics and Risk

Economics generally assumes that individuals will make choices that maximize expected utility when confronted with risk.

Expected Utility Model

The expected utility model is a foundational concept in economics to describe how individuals evaluate risky choices:
$$EU = \sum_{i=1}^{n} p_i \cdot u(x_i)$$
where EU is the expected utility, pi is the probability of outcome i, and u(xi) is the utility of outcome xi.

Expected Monetary Value

The expected monetary value (EMV) of a gamble involving two states (state 1 and state 2) is given by:
EMV = p ⋅ x + (1 − p) ⋅ y
where p is the probability of state 1 yielding outcome x, and 1 − p is the probability of state 2 yielding outcome y.

Measuring Risk Preferences

Utility Function

Risk preferences can be evaluated using a utility function, which translates monetary outcomes to utility values. A concave utility function indicates risk aversion:
$$\frac{d^2u}{dx^2} < 0$$
suggesting diminishing marginal utility of wealth.

Risk Aversion Coefficients

Economists typically measure risk aversion using two coefficients:

Examples of Risky Decisions

Several choices in life involve risk, such as:

Implications of Risk Preferences

Insurance Purchases

Individuals often purchase insurance to mitigate risks, demonstrating risk aversion. The willingness to pay for insurance, despite its cost, indicates that people value reducing uncertainty.

Choice Between Risks

The willingness to take on risk varies with context. For instance, people may engage in gambling or lottery tickets despite negative expected returns, which raises questions about individual risk tolerance and utility perceptions.

Small versus Large Scale Risk Preferences

Discrepancies in Risk Aversion

The model struggles to reconcile small-scale risk aversion with large-scale risk choices. For example, rejecting a 50% chance to gain $11 against a loss of $10 suggests extreme risk aversion, leading to implausible conclusions about larger risks.

Rabin’s Argument

Research by Matthew Rabin argues that consistent rejection of small-scale gambles implies unreasonable valuations of larger-scale gambles:

  1. $u(w + x) \geq \frac{1}{2}u(w + y) + \frac{1}{2}u(w - 10)$ suggests diminishing marginal utility.

  2. Small payouts lead to large wealth implications, hence failing to fit observed behaviors.

Conclusion

The expected utility model provides a framework for understanding risk preferences but fails to adequately explain discrepancies in small versus large-scale risk choices. Future discussions will delve into alternative models that account for these anomalies.

Lecture Notes on Economic Behavior Under Risk

Introduction

This lecture focuses on economic behavior under conditions of uncertainty and risk, particularly through the lens of the expected utility model.

Expected Utility Theory

The expected utility (EU) model is a powerful tool used by economists to evaluate choices made under uncertainty. It is defined as:


U(E) = ∑piU(xi)

Where:

Expected utility theory assists in understanding behaviors, such as investment decisions where higher risk typically demands higher expected returns.

Applications

Evaluating Risk Preferences

Risk preferences are typically represented by a parameter γ known as the risk aversion coefficient. The model used frequently for estimating utility preferences is the Constant Relative Risk Aversion (CRRA) utility function:


$$U(W) = \frac{W^{1 - \gamma}}{1 - \gamma}$$

Where W is wealth, and γ represents the risk aversion level. Estimation of γ can be derived from individuals’ choices in risky situations through the concept of revealed preference.

Contrasting Risk Aversion

Evidence showed that individuals exhibit varying degrees of risk aversion based on the scale of the gamble:

This contradiction poses a challenge: fitting a single γ to account for both small- and large-scale gambles is not feasible.

Matthew Rabin’s Calibration Theorem

This theorem illustrates how declining small-scale gambles with positive expected value implies irrational choices in larger gambles.

Empirical Analysis: Insurance Choices

Justin Sydnor’s research utilized data from 50,000 home insurance policies, focusing on deductible choices to ascertain risk preferences. Key points include:

Deductibles and Premiums

A deductible is an out-of-pocket expense paid by a policyholder before reimbursement by the insurer:

Claim Rate Insights

The average yearly claim rate associated with chosen deductibles is under 5%, suggesting that:

Implied Risk Aversion

From Sydnor’s analysis, estimated γ values ranged significantly, often in the hundreds or thousands, challenging traditional notions of risk aversion.

Kahneman and Tversky’s Prospect Theory

Kahneman and Tversky proposed an alternative model, focusing on how people make decisions based on potential losses and gains, rather than final outcomes.

Key Components


$$\text{Utility} = \begin{cases} U(x) & \text{if } x \geq 0 \text{ (gains)} \\ -\lambda U(-x) & \text{if } x < 0 \text{ (losses)} \end{cases}$$

Where λ > 1 reflects loss aversion.

Experimental Evidence

Several experiments confirmed these concepts, including:

Conclusion

The lecture emphasized understanding economic decision-making under risk through expected utility theory, considerations of risk preferences, and the implications of prospect theory. Future discussions will delve deeper into applications of these concepts in real-world scenarios and consider social preferences.

Study Notes on Prospect Theory and Reference-Dependent Preferences

Recap of Prospect Theory

In their 1979 article, Kahneman and Tversky introduced Prospect Theory based on empirical evidence. Key concepts include:

Key Characteristics of Prospect Theory

  1. Reference-Dependent Utility: Utility is derived from changes relative to a reference point (denoted r), not absolute levels of consumption (denoted c).
    U(c) = U(c − r)

  2. Loss Aversion: Losses have a greater impact on utility than equivalent gains. For instance, losing $100 feels worse than gaining $100 feels good. This is visually represented in the value function, which is flatter in the gain domain and steeper in the loss domain.

  3. Diminishing Sensitivity: The value function exhibits diminishing sensitivity. The perceived change in utility decreases as the value moves further from the reference point.
    U″(x) < 0 in gains, U″(x) > 0 in losses

Key Concepts Derived from Prospect Theory

Reference Point

The reference point (r) can be the status quo or the expected outcome. It plays a crucial role in determining whether a change is perceived as a gain or a loss.

Examples of Reference-Dependent Utility

Applications of Prospect Theory

Labor Supply Exhibit

Consider a worker with wage variations:

Housing Market Findings

Behavioral Finance and Reference-Dependent Preferences

Behavioral finance illustrates how reference-dependent preferences operate in trading scenarios:

Psychological Principles for Firms

Firms can leverage psychological principles to maximize profit:

Conclusion

Prospect Theory provides significant insights into decision-making behaviors influenced by loss aversion and reference dependence. Understanding these concepts is crucial not only for academic pursuits but also for practical applications in economics and business settings.

Social Preferences and Experimental Games

Introduction

This document outlines key concepts and findings from a series of experimental games designed to measure social preferences among individuals. These games are conducted to better understand altruism, fairness, and decision-making processes in economic contexts. Three primary games are discussed:

The Dictator Game

Purpose

The Dictator Game is utilized to assess an individual’s willingness to share resources with another participant. This game gives insight into altruistic behavior and selfishness in decision-making.

Structure of the Game

  1. One participant is designated as the Dictator and is endowed with a certain amount of money, which we denote as M.

  2. The Dictator can choose how much to give x to another participant, called the Receiver:
    x ∈ [0, M]

  3. The Receiver receives M − x.

Results Interpretation

The Ultimatum Game

Purpose

The Ultimatum Game assesses how individuals negotiate resource division with others while considering fairness and retaliation.

Structure of the Game

  1. There are two players: the Proposer and the Responder.

  2. The Proposer suggests a division of a sum S (e.g., 10 candies):
    S = x + y
    where x is offered to the Responder and y is kept by the Proposer.

  3. The Responder can choose to accept the offer or reject it.

  4. If rejected, both players receive nothing.

Expected Outcomes

The Trust Game

Purpose

The Trust Game evaluates levels of trust and reciprocity between individuals.

Structure of the Game

  1. One player acts as the Investor, while the other is the Responder.

  2. The Investor chooses an amount T to send to the Responder, which is then multiplied by a factor k (typically k = 2 or k = 3).
    Amount Received by Responder = k × T

  3. The Responder then decides how much of this multiplied amount R to send back to the Investor:
    R ≤ k × T

Expected Outcomes

Comparative Analysis of the Games

Common Themes

Conclusion

These experimental games illustrate how individuals navigate social preferences influenced by perceived fairness, trust, and potential outcomes. Further research may focus on refining these games to enhance predictive power regarding real-world economic and social behaviors.

Notes on Social Preferences

Introduction to Social Preferences

Measurement of Social Preferences

Experimental Games

Three commonly used games in behavioral economics:

  1. Dictator Game

    • One player (the dictator) decides how to divide a certain amount of money between themselves and another player.

    • Classic measure of generosity and social concern.

  2. Ultimatum Game

    • One player proposes a split of a sum of money, and the second player can accept or reject the offer.

    • If rejected, both players receive nothing.

    • This game assesses fairness and the impact of perceived disrespect on decision-making.

  3. Trust Game

    • The first player sends a certain amount of money to the second player, which is typically tripled.

    • The second player then decides how much money to send back.

    • This game measures trust and reciprocity in relationships.

Behavioral Insights from Games

Social Preferences Framework

Types of Social Preferences

  1. Distributional Preferences

    • Concern for the distribution of outcomes between individuals.

    • Can be interested (considering personal outcomes) or disinterested (concerned about societal outcomes).

    • Example utility functions:
      $$\begin{aligned} U_1 = \rho x_1 + (1 - \rho) x_2 & \quad (\text{if } x_2 \geq x_1) \\ U_1 = \sigma x_1 + (1 - \sigma) x_2 & \quad (\text{if } x_2 < x_1) \end{aligned}$$

  2. Face-Saving Concerns

    • Individuals care about maintaining a positive social image.

    • Behavior is influenced by how actions are perceived by others.

  3. Intentions-Based Preferences

    • Preferences based on how outcomes are generated, including concerns for reciprocity and procedural justice.

Experimental Findings on Preferences

Discussion of Generosity

Conclusion

Lecture Notes: Social Preferences

Social Preferences

Experimental Elicitation of Preferences

Underlying Motivations

Key Experimental Evidence

Lazear et al. (Costless Exit in Dictator Game)

Andreo ni and Bernheim (Excuses for Selfishness)

Evidence on Intentions-Based Preferences

Utility Functions

Incorporating Self and Social Image

Impressions on Altruism and Retribution

Field Evidence and Next Steps

Conclusion

Lecture Notes on Social Preferences

Introduction

This lecture is focused on social preferences, providing a more uplifting examination compared to previous lectures. The discussion will address the following topics:

Social Preferences at the Workplace

Relative Pay and Productivity

Bandiera et al. conducted a study on fruit farms in the UK, focusing on the effects of relative pay on productivity. The study distinguished between:

Findings

The introduction of relative pay led to unexpected productivity outcomes:

Morale Effects of Pay Inequality

Breza et al. examined low-skill manufacturing workers in rural India to explore how perceived pay inequality affects morale and productivity:

Policies to Increase Pro-Sociality

The Contact Hypothesis

This hypothesis posits that exposing individuals to diverse groups can reduce prejudice and increase pro-social behavior. This was illustrated through:

Additional Studies

Roommate Interactions

Corno et al. explored the impact of interracial interactions among college roommates in South Africa, leading to:

Underestimating the Benefits of Pro-Sociality

Kumar and Epley’s research highlighted how people might underestimate the positive impact of being generous:

Findings

Key results indicated:

Conclusion

These findings suggest significant implications for understanding social preferences:

Lecture Notes: Attention in Behavioral Economics

Introduction

In this lecture, we explore the concept of attention in the context of decision-making within the framework of behavioral economics. We start with a review of preferences discussed in previous lectures, including:

In particular, we focus on how individuals make decisions based on their environment, information, and learning mechanisms.

Attention and Decision-Making

Attention plays a fundamental role in how people gather information and make choices. Critical questions include:

Change Blindness

We introduce the concept of change blindness, where individuals fail to notice significant changes in their environment.

Dichotic Listening Experiments

The study of dichotic listening experiments from 1958 demonstrates that:

Factors Affecting Attention

Several factors can affect an individual’s attention:

Rational Inattention Models

Across many contexts, rational inattention models suggest that individuals may neglect important information due to limited attention resources. However:

Chetty et al. on Inattention to Taxes

The research by Raj Chetty and colleagues investigates consumer inattention regarding sales taxes:

The perceived value of a good, V, can be decomposed into:
V = v + o
where v is the visible/salient component and o is the opaque/invisible component.

For inattentive consumers, the perceived value, , is given by:
 = v + (1 − θ)o
where θ measures the degree of attention to the opaque component.

Demand Response to Taxes

Chetty et al. analyzed how demand for goods responds when sales tax information is rendered evident. Their findings support that:
$$\Delta \log D = \frac{\theta \cdot t_p}{\eta}$$
where D is demand, tp is the sales tax, and η is price elasticity. The estimated degree of inattention (θ) is significant as it quantifies how consumers respond to the introduction of sales taxes.

Proving Inattention

To demonstrate the impact of inattention, Chetty et al. utilized a controlled experiment:

The findings indicated that consumers are considerably inattentive regarding sales taxes compared to visible price changes.

Learning by Noticing: Schwartzstein Model

Building on the concept of rational inattention, Schwartzstein’s model illustrates how beliefs affect attention:

Conclusion

The lecture integrates the evidence supporting the systematic existence of inattention in decision-making, with a focus on taxes, consumer behavior, and learning failures. Understanding inattention can provide insights into:

Lecture Notes: Utility from Beliefs

Overview

In this lecture, we discuss the concept of utility derived from beliefs, also addressing the implications of attention and systematic deviations from optimal belief formation and information acquisition.

Key Concepts

  1. Utility from Beliefs: People derive direct utility from their beliefs about themselves, the world, and future events.

  2. Anticipatory Utility: Utility can stem from looking forward to future positive events or outcomes.

  3. Ego Utility: Individuals derive utility from thinking positively about themselves (e.g., intelligence or appearance).

Attention and Information Acquisition

Systematic Deviations in Beliefs

People may:

  1. Misinterpret the importance of certain information.

  2. Suffer from cognitive biases leading to incorrect beliefs.

Utility Functions: Traditional vs. Beliefs

Economists typically define utility functions over tangible outcomes (money, health, etc.). However, utility can also come from beliefs about these outcomes:


U(x, b) = f(x) + g(b)

Where:

Anticipatory Utility

Definition

Anticipatory utility refers to the utility gained from anticipating future events, both positive and negative:

Effects on Decision-Making

1. Timing of Experiences:

2. Information Gathering:

Loewenstein’s Experiment on Anticipatory Utility

Findings

  1. Willingness to pay for a kiss peaked at a certain delay, highlighting anticipatory utility effects.

  2. Willingness to pay to avoid an electric shock was highest when it was immediate, indicating a desire to remove negative anticipation.

Implications of Anticipatory Utility

The implications can be summed up as:
E[U] = p ⋅ U(xA) + (1 − p) ⋅ U(xB)
Where:

Study on Genetic Testing (Oster et al.)

Key Observations

  1. Testing rates remain low despite high potential benefits of obtaining certain information.

  2. Subjective probability of having the disease was generally lower than the actual probability, revealing an optimism bias.

Conclusion

The concept of utility from beliefs plays a critical role in understanding how people make decisions regarding future outcomes and the information they choose to acquire. Individuals may intentionally avoid information that could lead to negative anticipatory utility, impacting their health and happiness over time.

Lecture Notes: Anticipatory Utility and Information Acquisition

Introduction

In this lecture, we discussed anticipatory utility, which is the utility derived from beliefs about future events and how these beliefs influence consumer behavior, particularly in terms of consumption timing and information acquisition.

Anticipatory Utility

Utility from Beliefs

Anticipatory utility affects how individuals choose to engage in activities based on their expectations of future outcomes, providing a motivation to pursue positively anticipated events.

Information Acquisition

When individuals derive utility from beliefs, it affects their motivation to seek or avoid information, particularly negative information. For example, individuals at risk of Huntington’s disease may avoid testing due to the fear of confirming a negative diagnosis, thereby maintaining a facade of health.

Modeling Information and Beliefs

We discussed a simple model where individuals have a constraint to maintain accurate beliefs about information received. The key conditions for individuals wanting to gather information are summarized in the following utility function:


f(p)

Where:

The decision to gather information relies on the character of f(p).

Manipulating Beliefs

If individuals can manipulate beliefs, they might favor believing they have a higher probability (p = 1) of being healthy, especially if no consequences exist for self-deception.

Overoptimism and Decision Making

Overoptimism about future events may lead to higher momentary utility but may distort decision-making adversely in the long run.

Empirical Evidence

Research shows that individuals often believe they are less likely to face negative outcomes (e.g., health issues, divorce) compared to average populations. Examples include:

Understanding Biases in Probability Judgments

Heuristics and Biases Overview

Kahneman and Tversky’s work has established that individuals employ heuristics, or shortcuts, to simplify complex decision-making processes. This leads to systematic biases:

Examples of Heuristics

1. Representativeness Heuristic: Individuals tend to judge probabilities by how much they resemble existing prototypes.

2. Availability Heuristic: The probability judgment of an event is influenced by how easily instances can be recalled from memory.

3. Base Rate Neglect: Individuals often ignore the base rate information when making probability judgments, focusing instead on specific information such as test accuracy or event descriptions.
$$P(H | T) = \frac{P(T | H) P(H)}{P(T)}$$
Where:

Conclusion and Implications

Understanding these biases and heuristics can inform better decision-making strategies in various fields by emphasizing the importance of accurate information dissemination and how to counteract biases effectively.

Lecture Notes on State-Dependent Preferences, Projection Bias, and Attribution Bias

Introduction

This lecture will cover:

We will focus mainly on how people’s preferences can change in predictable and sometimes unpredictable ways over time.

State-Dependent Preferences

People’s preferences can change based on their physiological or psychological states, for example:

These state-dependent preferences can cause significant deviations in decision-making.

Types of Preference Changes

1. Short-term Temporary Fluctuations

2. Long-term Systematic Changes

3. Adaptation

Evidence of Preference Changes

Experimental Insights

Minnesota Starvation Experiment
Shopping on an Empty Stomach


Preferenceshungry > Preferencessatiated

Sleep Deprivation

Projection Bias

Definition

Projection bias refers to people’s tendency to project their current preferences onto their future preferences, underestimating future changes.

Mathematical Representation

Let true utility at time t depend on consumption ct and state st:
u(ct, st)

The predicted future utility:
(cτ, sτ) = (1 − α)u(cτ, sτ) + αu(cτ, st)
where α is the degree of projection bias.

Applications of Projection Bias

Attribution Bias

Attribution bias is a backward-looking bias where past states overly influence evaluations.

Examples

Conclusions

Lecture 18: Gender Discrimination and Identity

Introduction

The Gender Gap in Wages

Technological Solutions and Gender Gap

Women in Economics

Beliefs and Updating

Gender Identity Norms

Child Penalties in Earnings

Non-promotable Tasks and Gender Differences

Conclusion

Future Readings

Lecture 19: Gender Discrimination, Identity, and Nudges in Decision-Making

Overview

This lecture covers:

Gender Identity Norms

Study by Bertrand et al.: The authors argue there exists a norm where men perceive that they should earn more than their spouses, leading to:

Child Penalty Studies

Study by Kleven et al.: The study highlights a significant "child penalty" for women, characterized by:


Earnings Gap ≈ (Earningsmen−Earningswomen) ÷ Earningsmen ≈ 20%

Generational Transmission of Child Penalty

Child penalties appear to be transmitted through generations, suggesting that:

Policy Proposals

Proposals include:

However, studies indicate that such policies can inadvertently reinforce gender inequalities.

Study by Bursztyn et al.

The study investigates whether women avoid career-enhancing actions due to potential negative perceptions in the dating market. Key findings include:

This indicates that women may be holding back in certain environments due to perceived social penalties.

Non-promotable Tasks

Vesterlund Study: This study analyzes the distribution of tasks assigned to men and women, highlighting:

Experimental Findings

Participants in threshold public goods games have shown that:

Nudges and Defaults

401(k) Plans

Standard economics recommendations:

However, such strategies often fail. Research indicates default effects can significantly impact savings behavior.

Madrian and Shea Study

This study demonstrated:

Overall participation rates increased from 37% to 86%, particularly benefiting lower-income workers.

Default Investment Choices

Given 401(k) defaults, findings show:

Cautionary Tales of Defaults

Cronqvist and Thaler’s Study: Analysis of Sweden’s privatization of social security shows:

Conclusion

Key Takeaways:

Lecture Notes: Malleability and Inaccessibility of Preferences

Introduction

This lecture discusses the concepts of malleability and inaccessibility of preferences. We begin with a review of the impact of defaults, nudges, and framing effects on decision making.

Defaults and Framing Effects

Default Effects

Definition: A default option is the choice that is automatically selected if no alternative is chosen by the individual.

Examples:

Choice Architecture

Nudge Theory: According to Thaler and Sunstein, a nudge can steer individuals’ choices without removing their freedom of choice.

Key Components of Nudges:

Active Choice vs. Default

Key Research Examples

Flu Shot Scheduling Experiment

FAFSA Assistance Study

Research by Bettinger et al. showed that providing assistance in completing FAFSA applications significantly increased college enrollment.

Cognitive Processes and Preferences

Malleability of Preferences

Examples of Cognitive Biases

1. Two-String Problem:

2. Bystander Effect:

3. Position Effect:

Coherent Arbitrariness and Willingness to Pay

Coherent Arbitrariness Concept

Becker-DeGroot-Marschak (BDM) Procedure

Poetry Reading Experiment by Ariely

Conclusion

Future Lectures

Lecture Notes: Psychology of Poverty

Introduction

This lecture is focused on understanding poverty through the lens of psychology. It discusses the implications of scarcity and the psychological impacts of living in poverty, drawing on various studies, particularly the work of Mani et al.

Overview

Explanatory Factors for Suboptimal Behavior

Cognitive Aspects of Poverty

The Concept of Scarcity

Scarcity is defined as not having enough of something, leading to limited cognitive capacity. This can manifest in:
Cognitive Capacity = Total Cognitive Resources − Cognitive Load from Scarcity
When thoughts about money dominate, they leave less cognitive bandwidth for other tasks.

Evidence of Cognitive Effects of Poverty

Two main studies were highlighted:

  1. Mall Study:

    • Participants were divided into rich and poor, tested on cognitive tasks after answering hypothetical financial questions.

    • Results showed that poor participants performed significantly worse on tasks after hard financial questions compared to rich participants.

  2. Sugarcane Farmer Study:

    • Examined pre-harvest and post-harvest cognitive performance.

    • Results indicated improved cognitive functioning post-harvest when farmers had cash in hand.

Policy Implications

Conclusions

The psychological impacts of poverty are profound, affecting cognitive function, decision-making, and overall well-being. Addressing these issues requires multifaceted approaches, including financial support, education, and psycho-social interventions.

Lecture Notes: Happiness and Mental Health

Introduction

This lecture will cover:

Happiness and Subjective Well-being

Happiness and subjective well-being refer to how individuals experience the quality of their lives and evaluates their satisfaction.


Subjective Well-Being = Happiness + Life Satisfaction

Rationality and Revealed Preferences

Rationality in economics involves the idea that beliefs, preferences, and actions are consistent. An individual’s choices can reveal their underlying preferences.
Key Definition: If a person behaves in a certain way, it must be that their preferences can rationalize that behavior.

Utility and Choice

Utility can be thought of as the satisfaction or benefit derived from consuming goods or services. In classical economics, it is assumed that individuals seek to maximize their utility.

Measuring Happiness

Measuring happiness can be complex due to the differing ways in which it can be experienced over time.

Decision Utility vs. Experience Utility


Decision Utility ≠ Experience Utility

Techniques for Measuring Well-being

Common methods for measuring well-being include:

Factors Influencing Happiness

Several factors can influence an individual’s happiness:

Key Insights from Research

  1. Cultural Differences: Responses to happiness surveys can vary significantly across cultures, impacting how happiness is measured.

  2. Income: Broadly, richer individuals report higher happiness; however, baseline sufficiency seems to settle around an income level.

  3. Social Relationships: Maintaining strong social connections is one of the most consistent predictors of happiness.

  4. Adaptation: People often adapt to life events (both positive and negative), leading to a return to baseline happiness over time.

Policy Implications

As we consider interventions or policies to enhance well-being:

Concluding Notes

In future lectures, discussions on actual implementations of policies aimed at improving mental health will take place.

Consider engaging with your own happiness practices: reflect on the social ties you nurture, the balance between work and life satisfaction, and the active choices you make towards your well-being.

Policy with Behavioral Agents

Introduction

This lecture focuses on paternalism, examining its definitions, motivations, and implications when applied to governmental policies that influence behavioral agents.

Definitions

Paternalism

Paternalism is defined as “An attempt to influence or control people’s conduct for their own good.” It assumes individuals may not be fully optimizing their decisions, particularly impacting themselves.

Internalities

Internalities refer to the effects individuals impose on their future selves, often leading to decisions that are not in their long-term best interest.

Reasons for Government Engagement

The reasons for government involvement in economics can be categorized as follows:

  1. Externalities:

    • Positive and negative impacts of one’s actions on others that are not accounted for (e.g., pollution from factories).

  2. Desire for Equity:

    • Government programs aim to redistribute wealth (e.g., Social Security, unemployment insurance).

  3. Addressing Market Failures:

    • Under-provision of public goods and information asymmetry.

  4. Macroeconomic Stability:

    • Use of fiscal and monetary policies for economic stabilization.

  5. Internalities:

    • Interventions that account for decisions affecting one’s future self (the focus of this lecture).

Types of Paternalism

Hard Paternalism

Involves significant interventions such as:

Soft Paternalism

Defined as “Libertarian Paternalism,” emphasizes:

Asymmetric Paternalism

Policies aimed at assisting those who make mistakes without harming individuals who are already making optimal choices.

Arguments Against Paternalism

Arguments in Favor of Paternalism

Practical Examples

Save More Tomorrow Plan

Market Limitations

Nudges vs. Sludges

Conclusion

Incorporating psychological insights into policy design can influence individual behaviors positively. While paternalism, especially in its softer forms, can yield benefits, careful implementation and respect for individual preferences remain crucial.